Best
Original Screenplay is just another in a long line of categories this
year that really has me scratching my head. With the absence of any
film that has a remote chance of winning Best Picture, the doors are
pretty much wide open. Sure, we can sort of (but not completely)
eliminate the two contenders without a nomination in the top
category, but among the three that do, it's very much anyone's game.
The winner I'm hoping most to see would be Michael Haneke for his staid, detailed, minimalist wiring of Amour. Since the Screenplay awards often go to Best Picture nominees with an accompanying Best Director nod, Amour has a real shot at being the first foreign winner of this category since Pedro Almodovar's Talk To Her pulled it off ten years ago! What a classy choice it would be, but Haneke faces stiff competition from another auteur with a higher profile.
Quentin
Tarantino won his only Oscar in 1995 for Pulp Fiction, and
probably just fell short of winning his second for Inglourious
Basterds a few years back. He has a great shot this year for
Django Unchained. The film's affected dialogue, rich
characters, and distinctly original voice are the sorts of assets
that will help Tarantino's screenplay stand out to voters. The film
may not be as well-regarded as Amour, or even Zero Dark
Thirty, but it feels more writerly. Wins from the Critics Choice,
Globes, and most importantly BAFTA, make him a solid contender.
Probably
the least likely to win is John Gatins for Flight. Most
pundits seemed to think it was down to Looper vs The Master
for that fifth slot on the ballot, making Flight's inclusion a
mini-surprise, not that it should be. The script is quite good,
providing Denzel Washington with great material to forge one of the
year's best screen characters. However, it seems to have been
Denzel's contribution that got more people talking, rather than
Gatins'.
Another
likely also-ran, although one that actually deserves to win, is Wes
Anderson and Roman Coppola's exquisite screenplay for Moonrise
Kingdom. This being its only nomination indicates that the
Academy on the whole just wasn't as over the moonrise about the film,
but it definitely comes across as a writer's achievement. If a
passionate fanbase does exist within the Academy, this is its only
chance to announce itself in support of the film, but I wouldn't bet
on it.
Finally,
the leader of the pack in terms of critics awards is Mark Boal for
the dense, journalistic voice he brought to Zero Dark Thirty.
The victory at the WGA certainly makes it tempting to predict him as
the film's only win of the night, but it's important to remember that
his chief competition (Amour and Django Unchained) were
not eligible for the guild honour. Besides, one gets the vibe that
Zero Dark Thirty will go home empty handed. Without an
emotional hook for its audience, how many Academy members really want
to check it off here?
Will
win: Django Unchained
Runner-up:
Amour
Should
win: Moonrise Kingdom
Should
have been nominated: Looper
