For
this annual post I traditionally take a rigidly statistical approach
to narrowing down the Best Picture nominees. I simply look for the
contenders with the three key nominations of Director, Editing, and
Screenplay, and consider them the only ones truly in the running. But
in a year as off-kilter as this one, it has become apparent that my
usual approach is not adequate.
Due to a compressed window for nomination voting, the directors branch overlooked Ben Affleck in that important category of Best Director. And yet after cleaning up with the Critics Choice, Globes, PGA, SAG, ACE, and WGA Awards, we must accept that Argo was always going to be the indomitable juggernaut this season.
It
begs the question: which film stands to spoil the party? Of the
remaining eight nominees, I suppose the runner-up must be one of the
three that have that trio of important nominations. Lincoln,
Life of Pi,
and Silver Linings
Playbook are all up for
Best Director, Adapted Screenplay, and Film Editing.
Life
of Pi looks like it
might give Ang Lee a decent shot at Best Director, which logically
makes it the second most likely to win Best Picture.
But
I'm not so sure.
A
strong phase two campaign for Silver
Linings Playbook –
orchestrated by the sneaky Harvey Weinstein – could put it in
deceptively strong position. David O. Russell's surprise Adapted
Screenplay win at the BAFTAs might be a telling sign that he could
win Best Director. And if he could win Best Director, a Best Picture
win is certainly within the realm of possibility.
And
there may still be a contingent of Lincoln
faithful ready to stump for the Oscar-y biopic. But the preferential
ballot will hurt it a bit. It doesn't seem like everybody agrees on
this film.
Of
the remaining nominees, none feels like a winner:
Amour
is too foreign. Beasts of
the Southern Wild is too
small. Django Unchained
and Zero Dark Thirty
are too divisive and controversial. Les
Miserables has its share
of champions, but it too has many detractors, not to mention a
complete lack of the requisite Director, Editing, and Writing
nominations.
Will
win (ranked):
1.
Argo
2.
Silver Linings Playbook
3.
Life of Pi
4.
Lincoln
5.
Les Miserables
6.
Zero Dark Thirty
7.
Django Unchained
8.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
9.
Amour
Should
win (ranked):
1.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
2.
Argo
3.
Amour
4.
Lincoln
5.
Les Miserables
6.
Zero Dark Thirty
7.
Silver Linings Playbook
8.
Django Unchained
9.
Life of Pi
Should
have been nominated: Moonrise Kingdom
