There are a number of categories this year where I have reasonable doubts about my predicted winner - too many categories. This is not one of them. There is a single obvious choice on which any sane Oscar-watcher should bet the bank, but it's only fair to give the other nominees their congrats:
Lawrence Bennett did splendid work recreating the glory years of Hollywoodland and the silent screen in The Artist. Shooting in and around Los Angeles in tricky black and white, he and set decorator Robert Gould did a terrific job of dressing preexisting locations to suit the story's needs. I imagine the film might stand a better shot here than in Costume Design (Schindler's List managed to win for black-and-white sets), but there is still a much more luminous options for voters to spring for.
I suppose there is a half-decent chance for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, the fourth movie of the series to be cited here. Stuart Craig and Stephenie McMillan have been a constant presence in the Potter franchise, and if anyone deserves a cumulative Oscar for all eight movies, it's them. As usual, the sets are imaginative and immaculately detailed. I've pondered whether a sudden wave of conscience might persuade voters to at last give them their due, but I just don't see it toppling our next nominee.
Hugo marks a gargantuan feat of production design, from the sunbathed train station to the cozy clock compartments to George Melies' glass-walled dream-manufacturing studio, all showcased in eye-popping 3D. For quality and quantity, Hugo simply can't be beat in this department. It was pretty much apparent from the film's opening that it would bring Dante Ferretti and wife Fransesca Lo Shiavo their third Oscars. That'll be a nice little birthday present for Dante, who turns 69 on Oscar night!
The most unexpected nominee of the five is definitely Anne Seibel's production design for Midnight in Paris, whose dressy, warmly lit, time-hopping interiors pulled the rug out from under Maria Djurkovic's stuffy, smoke-shrouded offices in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (we have a winner for worst snub of the year, folks). That said, the work is quite nice. Helene Dubreuil's set decoration is particularly precise. These two owe a debt of gratitude to Darius Khondji's lovely cinematography, without which their sets might not have been so perfectly showcased.
After its surprising guild snub, it was very welcoming to see War Horse turn up here. Rick Carter and Lee Sandales' expansive exteriors convincingly transported us to war-torn Europe, from the untouched countryside to the trench-scarred battlefield. Contrary to popular belief, outdoor locations are not a setback when it comes to getting nominated by this branch, but it's definitely a barrier when it comes to the general membership. War films in particular just aren't pretty enough for them.
Will win: Hugo
Runner-up: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Should win: Hugo
Should've been nominated: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy