Anyway, the nominees – all five of whom I predicted for nominations back in April!:
After years of development and copious personal effort, writer-producer-star-lyricist Glenn Close finally ushered her passion project Albert Nobbs to the screen and was rewarded with what can indisputably be described as a hard-earned Oscar nomination – her first in 23 years. While no one can argue that the six-time nominee is overdue for a win, her vehicle is not conducive to that kind of mass sentiment. The extremely understated nature of the performance is its best quality, but also her biggest barrier in terms of winning. Had the music branch smartened up and given her lovely song “Lay Your Head Down” a serious listen, she might still have had a fighting chance at nabbing a trophy.
Needless to say, Viola Davis is the smart bet in this category. Everything just lines up in her favour: she’s the only nominated actress headlining a Best Picture nominee, she’s got an inspiring personal narrative of long-awaited hard-earned success, her acceptance speeches at the BFCA and SAG Awards have been dynamite (not a dry eye in either room), and the icing on the cake is that hers is legitimately the best performance of the five. I can’t imagine anyone not wanting this for her. The massive three-SAG-award tally for The Help indicates broad appeal that the other four represented films can’t even come close to matching.
The not-so-surprising surprise nominee was Rooney Mara, who managed to eke out a nomination despite The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo being unable to translate its guild success to a Best Picture nod. It’s a shame that Mara’s success had to come at the expense of Tilda Swinton, but I still say good on the actors branch for recognizing her decidedly chilly work in a difficult film. The performance is indeed a magnetic one that commands our attention in every frame, but the relative lack of precursor attention has cost her any amount of momentum she could have hoped to build. I also understand she’s not exactly a natural when it comes to the publicity game.
Davis’ primary competition for the win – albeit a distant threat after SAG’s deciding hand – is perennial contender Meryl Streep for her deft mimicry of notorious British PM Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady. Streep has the somewhat unfortunate knack for often being much better than the film she’s in, and that point couldn’t be made clearer by the utter stink of this overcooked biopic. If she could only attach herself to a project worthy of her talents, she might finally nab that elusive third Oscar. As it stands, I suspect the closest this performance will come to Oscar gold is by selling Mark Coulier’s remarkable aging makeup.
Davis’ secondary threat comes in another biopic role (although it’s not really a biopic). The actors branch loves impersonations of well known public figures, and they love beautiful young stars, so Michelle Williams channeling Marilyn Monroe would naturally be catnip to them. Like Streep's performance, Williams’ comes with the caveat of being housed in a terrible film, the sort that only exists so actresses can win awards for celebrity imitation, which honestly is unfair to the actress. Williams is really good in this character, and deserved a much better movie to showcase her work. Her Golden Globe win can basically be chalked up to category fraud by backer Harvey Weinstein, who must have a really odd sense of humour if he thinks My Week with Marilyn is a comedy. It’s not even unintentionally funny.
Will win: Viola Davis, The Help
Runner-up: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Should win: Viola Davis, The Help
Should've been nominated: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
