The first of those two frontrunners is dark horse Best Picture hopeful The Descendants. While I certainly don't think it comes close to representing the best writing of the year, my bigger problems with the film have more to do with its direction than anything else. Still, I cannot pretend that I think this tonally uneven film belongs here, but it doesn't matter what I think. Given its third-in-line Best Picture status, I'd say its a safe bet to bring Payne his second Oscar.
The nominee I have the most issues with is Hugo. I can only assume that widespread affection for the film swept it to a nomination here, because that script was in serious need of a tuneup. Blunt "subtext", inconsistent pace, muddled and emotionally distancing subplots... you name it, Hugo's got it. Only by the grace of Scorsese's impassioned direction was I able to swallow this film. Sorry, John Logan, but I have to call a spade a spade. Even though I struggle to imagine it coming up with a win here, its strong position in the hunt for Best Picture means it should not be underestimated.
By far my favourite nomination this year is the sole writing mention for The Ides of March. This taught, refined, and polished political thriller suffered general indifference from critics and audiences, but I stuck my neck out for it at the last minute and I couldn't be happier to be right (I luxury I seldom get to enjoy)! That said, I've made peace with the fact that a win is out of the question, this category being the film's only representation.
With that knowledge in mind, I'm throwing my cheers behind Moneyball to snatch the prize. It would prove an embarrassment of riches for Aaron Sorkin, who won this award just last year, but I couldn't begrudge him the win. The script is packed with interesting themes, believable characters, and a good old fashioned underdog story with a slightly statistical slant. The BFCA win is a nifty feather in its cap, and the WGA announcement on the 19th might further inform us on its chance at winning.
Finally, a bittersweet nomination for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy's Peter Straughan, whose wife and co-nominee Bridget O'Connor passed away in 2010 at only 49 years of age. She never got to see the film that so eloquently presented their intricately mapped-out espionage story. Unfortunately, a posthumous win is not in the cards. A number of viewers seem to find the elaborate plot mechanics somewhat confusing, and it has no Best Picture nomination. But on home soil at the BAFTAs... we'll see.
Will win: The Descendants
Runner-up: Moneyball
Should win: The Ides of March
Should've been nominated: We Need to Talk About Kevin
