We have to remember not to put too much stock into these nominees. Many screenplays in the hunt for Oscar recognition were not signatories of the WGA, thus were not eligible. Anyway, here they are:
Original Screenplay
50/50
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris Being the only viable Best Picture contender, I imagine this is the winner
Win Win
Young Adult
Obviously, The Artist, which was ineligible, is likely to replace one of these on the Oscar ballot. I say Bridesmaids is the weak link. The Academy and I may not always agree but they usually try to keep it classy. However, Young Adult may be a bit too acerbic and sour to win them over, but if any branch is willing to give Diablo her fair shake, it's the writers.
Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants Here's your winner... (sigh)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
The Adapted Screenplay situation looks fairly close to my predicted Oscar five. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy wasn't eligible, but I'd expect the Academy to prefer it to Dragon Tattoo. War Horse never was a writer's showcase, so it's still strong for a Best Picture nomination. But for the win? I don't know. A Screenplay nomination is uber important.
Documentary Screenplay
Better This World
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Nostalgia for the Light
Pina
Position Among the Stars
Senna Winner?
Disappointing that Project Nim didn't show up here. I thought it was quite well written. At any rate, Pina and If a Tree Falls are the only two nominees on the documentary branch's shortlist, and I seriously doubt Pina's chances anyway, so this doesn't help us much in predicting Best Documentary.
