This
might take the cake as the year's most unpredictable category.
Composed entirely of past winners, there are no narratives of
“overdue actor still waiting for first Oscar” to be had. And with
a pair of co-lead performances masquerading as supporting amongst
true supporting players in popular Best Picture nominees, it leaves
the contest as wide open as we've seen in years.
Despite not winning a single critics prize or precursor award, Alan Arkin has been a consistent presence this season for his welcome comic relief in the presumed Best Picture frontrunner Argo. Nominations from BFCA, Globes, SAG, and BAFTA indicated a strong foundation of support for his zinger-spewing producer Lester Siegel, and even though it's arguably the slightest of the nominated five performances, general love for the film could make him one to watch.
Another
contender who hasn't won too many precursors but should be considered
a stealthy threat for the victory is Robert De Niro for is comically
OCD gambler in Silver
Linings Playbook. The
rationale for De Niro taking this is that of these five previous
winners, it's been more time since his last win than the other four –
over 30 years ago for Raging
Bull! Many new voters in
the Academy have never had a chance to vote for this living legend
(his last nomination coming in 1992), and a campaign blitz in the
last couple of weeks might give him an edge over contenders with less
media exposure.
Contenders
like, say, Philip Seymour Hoffman, nominated for his fiendishly
charismatic turn as a post-war cultist in The
Master. Having won the
lion's share of critics prizes, and having the unfair advantage of
actually being a co-lead performance, you'd think he'd be in better
shape, but it seems that the industry as a whole wasn't that taken
with the film. Too enigmatic for most, I guess. Strange to think that
the best performance of the bunch might be bringing up the rear in
terms of the Oscar race, but in this category, this year, anything
can happen.
The
odds-on favourite seems to be Tommy Lee Jones, who took the SAG Award
for his portrayal of abolitionist Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln.
The film seems to be on the cusp of winning several categories, this
one included, but little things might hurt him in a race as tight as
this. Things like that silly Internet meme of him looking quite
unimpressed at the Golden Globes, or his no-show at the SAG Awards
due to illness. They may have no effect after all, and nor should
they, but in the absence of a clear frontrunner, the politics of
likability could come into play.
Finally,
the most recent winner in this tournament of champions is Christoph
Waltz, nominated for playing a bounty-hunting German dentist in
Django Unchained.
His wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTA were necessary boosts of exposure for
him and the film, and if voters really feel compelled to award the
film somewhere, they could do it here (or Original Screenplay).
Co-lead status and the likability of his character may help, but as with all Tarantino films, Django is divisive, and the
affectations of Waltz's charming performance may strike some voters
as too similar to his Oscar-winning turn in Inglourious
Basterds. It was just
three years ago.
Will
win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Runner-up:
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Should
win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Should
have been nominated: Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a
Wallflower
