For
an Oscar year as weird as this one to ultimately yield another
no-brainer Best Picture winner (from where we stand, at least) is a
bit disappointing. Thankfully, all the uncertainty and
unpredictability that was once thought to cloud the Best Picture race
has instead been concentrated into the competition for Best Director,
which is up for grabs in Ben Affleck's conspicuous absence.
In recent
years with a Best Picture/Best Director split, Best Director has
often gone to the presumed runner-up for Best Picture as a sort of
consolation prize. To cite the examples, it certainly seems like
Brokeback Mountain, The Pianist, and Traffic all
came about as close to winning Best Picture as you can get without
actually winning. But it begs the question: Which movie is in the
runner-up position? Will that even matter?
While I wasn't predicting Michael Haneke to be nominated for his austere but immaculate direction of Amour, I can't say that his inclusion was a huge shock. Several outlets had been bandying about his name as a possibility in this category since the film first bowed at Cannes waaaaay back in April. Deserved though the honour may be, one has to suspect that Haneke would have been one of those “lone director nominees” in a year with five Best Picture slots.
By
far my favourite single nomination of the year – maybe my favourite
of the last several years – is Benh Zeitlin for his marvellous
feature debut Beasts of the Southern Wild. Not just because he
topped my personal ballot of directors this year, but because it was
a genuine surprise to hear his name called on nomination morning. He
and Haneke are likely bringing up the rear in this contest, but it's
gratifying to see two of the best directorial accomplishments of the
year represented.
Ang
Lee has had an unusual history with Best Picture. When Sense and
Sensibility was up for the big prize in 1996, he was not
nominated along with it. He was able to accept the Foreign Film
trophy for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in 2001, but the
film lost Best Picture and Best Director to two different films
(one of those tricky split years). When Brokeback Mountain
looked poised to dominate in 2006, Lee ended the night with Best
Director in hand but without a Best Picture distinction for his film,
as Crash pulled off the upset. And this year will likely see
another split, possibly involving him again. With Life of Pi
en route to collect several craft awards, voters may indeed see it as
the most challenging and visionary accomplishment of the year.
Conservative
logic suggests that Steven Spielberg, helmer of nomination leader
Lincoln, is the most sensible choice here. But the season has
taken its toll on the talkative biopic, which now looks weak in every
category except Best Actor. Many voters may feel Spielberg, as a
Hollywood fixture, is already amply rewarded. Or perhaps many may
consider Lincoln to be more of a writer's or actors' piece since
Spielberg's direction is so tactfully invisible.
A
contender who should certainly not be counted out is David O.
Russell, whose Silver Linings Playbook might be the stealthy
second-place Best Picture contender who gets consolation in this
category. Although directors of comedies almost never win, the film
is well-liked enough to draw votes. Russell has also quickly built a
new reputation for himself by ushering crowd-pleasing ensemble pieces to the
screen. Those four acting nominations might convince some members
that he has a more rightful claim to this trophy than his
competition.
Will
win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Runner-up:
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Should
win: Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Should
have been nominated: Ben Affleck, Argo
