The major talking points with this year's crop are the unexpected inclusions in the Supporting categories of Nicole Kidman in the critically polarizing The Paperboy and Javier Bardem for his charismatic Bond villain in Skyfall. Both Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor have had lots of wiggle room (at least more than the Lead categories which are beginning to solidify), and either of these nominations could have an influence on Academy balloting which begins in just one week.
The crowded Lead categories are naturally more noteworthy for the performances that were excluded than the ones they let in. Best Actor has seemed like a six-way race for some time now between Day-Lewis, Cooper, Jackman, Washington, Hawkes, and Phoenix all vying for five slots. It was Phoenix who suffered the unavoidable SAG snub, a victim of his film's challenging nature. I've been wondering if his undeniable performance is in fact deniable after all, but up against leading men in five more universally liked movies could be the kiss of death. For the leading ladies, it was Emmanuelle Riva who got left off the ballot, but Marion Cotillard got in. Let's not kid ourselves: two Lead Actress nominees for foreign films at the Oscars was always going to be a long shot, and with Cotillard more of a household name stateside than Riva, this could be the slate we see on Oscar night (although I'll be rooting for Quevanzhane Wallis, who was ineligible with SAG, to be nominated).
The Ensemble category filled out with all the usual Best Picture contenders, though some might be surprised by The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. I'm not. If ever there was a film that could play to old Academy types, this is it. All nominees with brief thoughts after the cut.
Best Ensemble
Argo
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
All of these but Best Exotic are slam dunk Best Picture nominees, with Life of Pi and Zero Dark Thirty joining them. Best Exotic is definitely in the mix, though.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel Washington, Flight
What a lineup. All of these performances are excellent (although I haven't seen Jackman's yet, I assume for the time being that he's great). Shame they couldn't fit in Phoenix.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
This lineup feels right to me, although one of them is probably going to get usurped by either Riva or Wallis at the Oscars. But which one?
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Bardem would make an odd nominee. If anyone from Skyfall should be nominated, it's Dench. And what of the Django supporting players DiCaprio, Waltz, and Jackson? Internal vote splitting is hurting them here.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
As fun as it is to see Kidman nominated for what many have described as a trashy movie, I don't buy her as an Oscar contender for it. Even Maggie Smith doesn't feel right (she may be my favourite living actress, but she was soooo dialing it in for Best Exotic).
Best Stunt Ensemble
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Bourne Legacy
The Dark Night Rises
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Skyfall takes this in a walk, no? It had better, or I'm gonna be pissssssssssed.
