One... er, Three Categories at a Time: The Shorts

Thanks to Shorts International and Magnolia Pictures, all the nominees for Oscar's least exposed categories do get to see the light of day in select theatres, allowing us mere mortal Oscar pundits to make more informed (but not more accurate) predictions than we ever could before. In the interest of conciseness, I'm only going to briefly highlight the contenders of each race in a few quick blurbs. It's best not to over analyze these categories. There's no telling how the voters will lean any given year.

Animated Short

Best Animated Short always offers a diverse cross-section of animation techniques. The world of computer animation is well represented by Pixar's gorgeous and thematically resonant La Luna and the whimsical The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore. Hand drawn animation is present in the form of Wildlife and Dimanche, a pair of entries from the National Film Board of Canada, whose track in this category is rather impressive. Finally, A Morning Stroll is a vibrant hybird whose distinctive style stands out. My initial impression is that La Luna, with its eye-popping images and rich concept, should win hands down, and it could. But I wonder if Wildlife's beautiful pastel artwork and witty narrative might be the ticket here. Or maybe Mr. Morris Lessmore's ample run time and fond tribute to the magic of books might warm enough voters' hearts to come out on top.
I don't know. It's a tough call.

Will win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Runner-up: Wildlife
Should win: La Luna
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Live-Action Short

Best Live Action Short is no easier to anticipate. A weak slate overall means that any of them could conceivably win. Hallvar Witzo's Tuba Altantic, about an eccentric codger joyfully living out his last days on the Norwegian coast, could take home the prize for its winning balance of dark humour and heart-tugging drama. Other entries that hope to tickle the viewership into checking off their ballot box accordingly are the briskly comedic Pentecost and Time Freak, while the lengthier and more serious nominees Raju and The Shore must try to appeal to voters' high-mindedness.

Will win: Tuba Atlantic
Runner-up: The Shore
Should win: Tuba Atlantic
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Documentary Short

Best Documentary Short has somewhat fallen into a pattern these last three years of responding to stories of hope from impoverished or developing areas, especially when centering on children, as indicated by recent wins for Smile Pinki (Indian girl with cleft palate), Music by Prudence (Zimbabwean singer with severe disabilities), and Strangers No More (globally integrated school in Tel Aviv). The nominee this year that seems to most fit the bill is Saving Face, a terrific expose on acid violence against women in Pakistan and the plastic surgeon who devotes himself to reconstructing their scarred faces. However, I could see The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom – whose artful account of last March's devastating tsunami in Japan packs a real emotional wallop – winning just as easily. Nor should we count out Incident in New Baghdad, a powerfully sobering tale of a tragic friendly fire incident in Iraq in 2007. The civil rights doc The Barber of Birmingham and the actress-turned-monk story God is the Bigger Elvis feel like they're on the outside track.

Will win: Saving Face
Runner-up: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Should win: Saving Face