One Category at a Time: Picture

Last year, I continued my practice of narrowing down the Best Picture field by simple analysis of which films possessed the necessary three nominations (Editing, Directing, Writing) to win Best Picture. Only three films met all the requirements, and those films went on to win a combined nine Oscars, including seven of the eight major categories. So let's do more of the same:

The Artist: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Descendants: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)
The Help: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)
Hugo: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Midnight in Paris: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Moneyball: Editing (Y), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The Tree of Life: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (N)
War Horse: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)

So, the only three that can win (by this logic, that is) are The Artist, Hugo, and The Descendants.

In truth, there are only really two frontrunners in the equation. The Artist and Hugo have such a huge nomination lead that it's hard to see anything else toppling them both. Of the two, The Artist is the clear choice. It ran away with things at the start of the season and never looked back. You could make a case for mass Marty love resulting in a surprise win for Hugo, but that seems more likely in Best Director, which is still highly unlikely.

The Descendants is a distant third. So distant, that it could go home empty-handed.
It looked like it was guaranteed at least two for a while, but the Dujardin push put Clooney on shaky ground. Its best bet remains in Adapted Screenplay, and even that could fall to Moneyball or Hugo.

How to rank the rest of the field is a moot point, but why not have fun with it anyway?

Midnight in Paris is likely the fourth place finisher, given strength by its Writing and Directing nods, but weakened by its lack of an Editing nod. Interesting to note, however, that Woody Allen's only Best Picture winner, Annie Hall, did it without an Editing nomination, waaaaay back in '78.

I toggle between who I think would have been the fifth nominee in a field of five. Moneyball has important Writing and Editing nods, plus two for Acting and a surprise inclusion in Sound Mixing. The Help doesn't have any of the essential nods, but it's commanding triumph at the SAG Awards suggests that it's popular with the actors, AMPAS' largest branch.

Bringing up the rear is War Horse, which would probably benefit from the preferential ballot, followed by The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, both of which will probably have a bunch of number one votes but rank low on most other ballots.

Will win (ranks):
#1 The Artist
#2 Hugo
#3 The Descendants
#4 Midnight in Paris
#5 Moneyball
#6 The Help
#7 War Horse
#8 Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
#9 The Tree of Life

Should win (ranks):
#1 The Tree of Life
#2 Midnight in Paris
#3 Moneyball
#4 The Artist
#5 The Help
#6 Hugo
#7 War Horse
#8 The Descendants
#9 Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Should have been nominated (top seven):
#1 A Separation
#2 We Need to Talk About Kevin
#3 Hell and Back Again
#4 Drive
#5 The Ides of March
#6 Beginners
#7 The Adventures of Tintin