One of the nominees that decidedly does NOT benefit from this system is Mikael R. Roskam's Bullhead from Belgium, a densely atmospheric mob drama about the underground trade of cattle steroids. It's a slow-moving but quietly engaging piece, boasting an exceptional central performance from Matthias Schoenaerts and yielding a strong payoff for those patient enough to see it through. Still, its stark moodiness and sudden jolts of violence don't reflect the sorts of movies that win this category.
Isreal's fourth nomination in five years comes for Joseph Cedar's Footnote, which tells of a father-son rivalry for Isreal's top literary prize. This dry academic comedy managed to win a writing honour at Cannes where it first played, but otherwise doesn't make much of a case for itself as a potential winner. Comedies rarely triumph here, and when they do, it's often for less cynical films than this.
Traditional "Oscar movies" tend to have the upper hand with this group, and its hard to find a more cookie-cutter nominee than Agnieszka Holland's In Darkness. The Polish Holocaust drama follows a band of resilient Jews evading Nazi capture by hiding out in the sewers of Lvov, and depicts their daring liberation by an antiheroic thief (Robert Wieckiewicz). It's got the right setting, the right story (a true one, obviously), and the right emotional pulls... in sum, it's got everything that winners in this category are made of. But at more than two-and-a-half hours, it's also a long, tough sit.
The French-Canadian classroom drama Monsieur Lazhar from Philippe Falardeau might be a dark horse to keep an eye on, given its warm and inspirational narrative about a substitute who takes over a class whose previous teacher committed suicide. This unambitious but marvelously acted little film could turn the trick if voters aren't feeling up to the frontrunners' sobering subject matter. But could it be too slight to compete with their loftier intentions?
And that brings us to the overwhelming critical favourite, Asghar Farhadi's brilliant Iranian drama A Separation. The advent of the Foreign Language Film executive committee was to ensure that movies like this get nominated no matter what, thus preventing the critics from annually getting their knickers in a twist. But the executive committee can't help it now. Is this the year to finally put some faith in the Academy, given how clearly superior this film is to its competition? How can you justify predicting anything but A Separation winning this?
... Nope. I'll believe it when I see it. Last year's disappointing outcome in Cinematography has taught that me I'd rather be happy and wrong than unhappy and wrong. I'm not gonna be the guy left slapping his forehand on Oscar night exclaiming, "of course it lost to 'the Holocaust movie'". This is hardly a model of integrity or accuracy, but this is one category where I think it wise I hedge my bet. I am totally prepared (and hoping) to get this wrong on Oscar night.
Will win: In Darkness
Runner-up: A Separation
Should win: A Separation
Should've been nominated: Miss Bala
