Is it wishful thinking from the frontrunner's detractors?
Is it skepticism that a first-time nominee can win over more established, Oscarless filmmakers? Whatever the reason, every year some people seem to come up with some excuse to predict a split. But don't do it! Splits are rare and when they do occur there's no consistent rhyme or reason as to why.
Woody Allen has the sixth Best Director nomination of his career (and his first since Bullets Over Broadway) for Midnight in Paris. It looked early on like his modest comedy wouldn't have the air of importance necessary to land him on the ballot, but as other contenders fell by the wayside it became a more concrete possibility. The DGA confirmed him as one of the chosen five, but I wouldn't count on him winning. He would need his film to win Best Picture.
Michel Hazanavicius is obviously the one to beat. Along with his Best Picture winning film, he's poised to collect a trophy of his own for ushering his silent movie era homage The Artist to the screen with wit and charming comic sensibilities. Some might try to argue that being a Hollywood outsider could impeed his chances, but it didn't hurt Tom Hooper last year, who was arguably at greater risk of being upset by precursor king David Fincher.
Terrence Malick's nomination was a pleasantly surprising one for me. Even though he had racked up his fair share of critics prizes, his lack of citations from the DGA, Globes, and BFCA felt like an indication that neither he, nor his film, would be up for any major categories at the Oscars. I'm happy to be wrong in this case, and I've made peace with the fact that he hasn't got a snowball's chance of actually winning. But good on the directors branch for acknowledging his staggering artistic achievement.
Alexander Payne is back after a seven year hiatus from feature filmmaking, and the Academy was quick to notice by handing him three nominations, including Best Director, for The Descendants. His film is probably third in line to win Best Picture, which makes him probably third in line to win Best Director. His film just doesn't have the kind of scale or pull that typically wins here. He'll receive consolation in Best Adapted Screenplay.
Hazanavicius' chief rival is Martin Scorsese for his much beloved Hugo. The lavishly produced period piece is likely to garner attention for its detail to craftsmanship, but its Scorsese's passion for the subject matter that really gleams through, and that may be what could lift him to an upset. If Hugo is going to pull off an unlikely upset in Best Picture, we'll know it if Scorsese's name is read for this award.
Will win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Runner-up: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Should win: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Should've been nominated: Lynne Ramsay, We Need to Talk About Kevin
