One Category at a Time: Cinematography

If you're no stranger to the blog you probably already know that Best Cinematography is always my favourite category at the Oscars. Not only because of my personal fascination with the craft, but because it always proves so devilishly tricky to predict. It's an area where the precursors tend to be deceptively offtrack, and ideologies on how the whole Academy votes shift from year to year. This year's slate (the only one I correctly predicted 5/5) houses five contenders which are equally plausible winners for completely different reasons. My rationales, accompanied by my favourite shot from each nominee, are outlined after the cut.

How The Artist can win: Black-and-white cinematography draws attention to itself by the mere fact of its own scarcity in our modern age, and Guillaume Schiffman's glossy monochromatic images remind us why they used to call it the silver screen. It's worth pointing out that the most recent black-and-white nominees in this category (The White Ribbon, Good Night and Good Luck, The Man Who Wasn't There) didn't win , but none of those were Best Picture winners. The most recent black-and-white Best Picture winner (Schindler's List) won this category in a walk.

The brightly adorned Peppy is climbing the staircase to stardom, while George
Valentin, having just denounced the new trend, has begun his descent.

How The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo can win: I'm really happy for Jeff Cronenweth, whose stark, icily sleek compositions for the pulpy mystery-thriller were the best thing about it, but since it's the only nominee not also up for Best Picture, it puts him at quite the disadvantage. Still, there's even a slight possibility that love for the other four could be so evenly distributed it would result in a astronomically improbable four-way split that allows Cronenweth to sneak up the middle. But yeah; astronomically improbable.

The editing rarely settles on one shot long enough for us to truly appreciate
Croneneweth's stunning composition, but this fleeting image stuck with me. No reason.

How Hugo can win: One of the school's of thought on how voters choose a winner in this category is that they vote for what's in front of the camera, as opposed to the actual photography itself. Only once in the last eleven years has this award gone to a film not also nominated for Art Direction, and films additionally nominated for Visual Effects stand an even better chance (this rule doesn't always hold true, but it certainly has the last two years). Whatever film comes off as the most visually impressive is in good standing here, which makes Hugo – with its gorgeous sets, flashy effects, and nifty 3D – a formidable contestant indeed. It'd be Robert Richardson's third Oscar.

How sad Papa George looks (even when out of focus) in this frame that concludes an
elaborate, effects-aided tracking shot through Hugo's labyrinthine wall cavities.

How The Tree of Life can win: I remain stubbournly committed to the notion that the film's esoteric nature will keep it from winning (I believe that BAFTA snub is a telling sign), but the Best Picture nomination it earned from the Academy is enough to give me just one tiny iota of hope that maybe Lubezki can collect his long overdue Oscar after all. The precursors have lined up overwhelmingly in his favour, but they also did for Children of Men, and we all remember how that turned out. I think it's mostly accurate to assume that precursors don't mean squat when it comes to the crafts.

Credit Doug Trumbull and Dan Glass more so than Lubezki for this marvelous
effects shot that evokes a mass extinction event with disquieting serenity.

How War Horse can win: If the Academy is only interested in pretty, postcard-perfect, picturesque panoramas, then War Horse seems tailor-made to win this category. Sweeping vistas and colours that rival Gone with the Wind for boldness and scope may be off-putting to a vocal few, but I suspect a great many more could be swept up by the "Oooooh! Aaaaah!" factor. But hold the phone; vast landscapes and dramatic lighting didn't help Deakins last year. And Hugo (a much stronger Best Picture contender) will surely siphon off a lot of those "Oooooh! Aaaaah!" votes.

This painterly vignette eschews the over-the-top beauty on which the rest
of the film sells itself, nicely capturing Ted Narracott's solitary nature.

At the end of the day, I wouldn't be surprised by any winner.
Could Hugo and War Horse split the prettiness vote, allowing The Artist to win? Could The Artist and Hugo split the most-liked-film vote, allowing War Horse to win? Could a combination of these two possible vote splits allow The Tree of Life to win?! If nothing else, this category promises to be an exciting one on Oscar night.

Will win: Hugo
Runner-up: War Horse

Should win: The Tree of Life
Should've been nominated: We Need to Talk About Kevin