Our first nominee replicated his surprise SAG nomination with an equally surprising and heart-raising nomination from the Academy. Hardworking character actor Demian Bichir earned devoted critical praise for his sympathetic performance as a struggling migrant worker in A Better Life early in the year. I'm mostly indifferent on the film itself, but Bichir's performance is its driving force. For him to make it in for such a tiny movie is slightly miraculous, and I couldn't be happier for him. Needless to say, this being the film's only nomination, a win is not likely.
For a long time, the defacto frontrunner in this category was George Clooney. His suave charm and easy likability within the industry coupled with a fine, emotionally understated performance in a hot Best Picture contender seemed like an unbeatable combo. But after collecting Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards, his fortunes took a turn for the worse at the SAG Awards, where he was trumped by fellow Globe victor Jean Dujardin. Has The Descendants peaked already? Will voters remember that Clooney already has an Oscar from just six years ago? Do they care?
The Oscar race is often a game of momentum, and there's no denying that after a surprising triumph at the SAG Awards, followed up by a less surprising triumph at the BAFTAs, the momentum has swung the way of Jean Dujardin, the loveable and facially expressive star of The Artist. Final ballots went out a couple of weeks ago, only a few days after that highly publicized SAG win. Normally, wouldn't feel confident predicting a largely comedic performance for a win here (Johnny Depp and Bill Murray couldn't translate respective SAG and Globe wins to an Oscar in 2004), but with Harvey Weinstein backing him up in the likely Best Picture winner, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
By far the most satisfying acting nomination of the year is the one for Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. This was a loooooong time coming, and looking back over his chameleonic portfolio from the last 26 years, it's a wonder as to why he had to wait so long. Whatever. The curse is over, and we can now call Oldman an Academy Award nominee (I'll never get tired of writing that). Unfortunately, his subdued performance isn't poised to turn many heads in the Academy. He couldn't even derail Dujardin's momentum with the hometown crowd at the BAFTAs.
Finally, my personal favourite of the group, Brad Pitt in Moneyball. His swaggering movie star turn seems to channel his own persona more than the character he actually plays, Oakland A's GM Billy Beane, but that's just as well. The personality he sells in Moneyball is magnetic but genuine, and he handles the screenplay's refreshingly frank and intentionally awkward dialogue with relish. I held out hope that he might make a move at some point in the precursors, but with no love from the BFCA, Globes, or SAG, I regret to say that this is one underdog who won't be made a champion by the Academy.
Will win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Runner-up: George Clooney, The Descendants
Should win: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Should've been nominated: Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
