But I have to thank the Documentary branch for straying outside the box of predictability this year. Had they followed the route mapped out by the precursors,
I would never have been led to investigate Danfung Dennis' exceptional war doc
Hell and Back Again, which hasn't received any precursor attention of note.
It's examination of a crippled soldier returning home is a staggering psychological study, but I fear it's artistic flourishes might not gel with more voters' more traditional tastes.
Marshall Curry's If A Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front takes a fairly objective look at the grey middle spectrum between activism and terrorism, telling the story of E.L.F. member David McGowen as he awaits trial that will either deem him a mere "arsonist" or an "environmental terrorist". The film's WGA nomination might suggest a decent pocket of industry support, and the fact that it follows a central figure is always a plus. Let's put this in the maybe pile.
The one nominee whose presence in this category continues to puzzle me (even though it had seemed likely for quite a while now) is Wim Wenders' Pina. My own thoughts about interpretive dance aside, I don't know what the documentary branch sees in this film. As visually interesting and unique as it is, I wouldn't define it as a documentary. It's performance art put on film. How is a series of disconnected modern dance routines considered documentarianism? I dunno, maybe I'm just not smart enough to see it, but I'd be willing to bet many voters feel the same way.
The two most likely nominees for the win, from where I see it, are the two I haven't seen (typical). One is Undefeated, not to be confused with the Sarah Palin doc, which follows the Manassas Tigers football club as they climb from down-on-their-luck pretenders to bonafide contenders thanks to coach Bill Courtney. Oscar loves an underdog story, and sports docs are a great medium for that. However, when it comes to this particular category, they tend to vote with their heads over their hearts. To that end, I'm tentatively putting my chips down on Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, the third in a series of HBO docs which have investigated the wrongful conviction and imprisonment of the West Memphis Three. They were released just last August on Alford plea deals, more than 18 years after their initial conviction, making this doc a rather timely one.
I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the nominees win (except perhaps Pina), but I'll go with Paradise Lost 3 for now.
Will win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Runner-up: Undefeated
Should win: Hell and Back Again
Should've been nominated: The Interrupters
