The final guild has spoken. Usually four or five of the eventual Sound Editing Oscar nominees come from the Motion Picture Sound Editors' "Best Sound Effects and Foley" category (below), sometimes with a party crasher from their Animated or Foreign categories. It bodes well for War Horse, Super 8, and Transformers (who many have been predicting for some time now), but not so well for Hugo, which is a shame because I thought Philip Stockton's sound effects were really good. I'm still banking on an animated nominee to flesh out Oscar's slate, so the fifth nominee should come from either Fast Five, Dragon Tattoo, Apes, or MI4 (my guess).
BEST SOUND EDITING: SOUND EFFECTS AND FOLEY IN A FEATURE FILM
Drive
Fast Five
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse