[REPOST]
I've hemmed and hawed for long enough. Time to commit my guesses to digital ink. I should be committed myself, because these have driven me positively crazy!
If you've been keeping track of my daily category-by-category analyses, you already know most of my predictions, but I'll just repeat them in this one tidy post for posterity (with alternates and a handful of mini-rationales for the predictions I've changed).
Best Picture: Birdman
Alt: Boyhood
Best Director: Alejandro G. Inarritu
Alt: Richard Linklater
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
Alt: Michael Keaton
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
Alt: Felicity Jones
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons
Alt: Edward Norton
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
Alt: Emma Stone
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alt: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Alt: Whiplash
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Alt: Big Hero 6
Best Documentary: CitizenFour
Alt: Virunga
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Alt: Wild Tales
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Film Editing: Boyhood
Alt: Whiplash
Just four days ago I made a gutsy call for American Sniper and it immediately felt off somehow. Reading a bunch of more sober opinions around the Oscarweb has convinced me that Boyhood, as the presumed Best Picture runner-up, makes more sense, but what an atypical winner it would make. I'll rejoice if it goes to Whiplash, but I'll be kicking myself if my Sniper hunch turns out to be right all along.
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alt: Into the Woods
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alt: Into the Woods
Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything
Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Soooo pulling for Desplat here.
Best Sound Mixing: Birdman
Alt: American Sniper or Whiplash
Look at this category! I can't even decide on a single alternate, let alone a single winner. I really don't believe the sound categories will split, but predicting a split is the only way to salvage at least one prediction.
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Alt: Birdman
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Alt: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alt: Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Animated Short: Feast
Alt: The Dam Keeper
When I can't decide between two very strong contenders, I just pick the one I'd least prefer. Not that I dislike Feast, mind you.
Best Live-Action Short: The Phone Call
Alt: Boogaloo & Graham
Best Documentary Short: Joanna
Alt: Crisis Hotline
Going out on a limb for the best of the lot, and Joanna is a really likely winner, but I'd hate to predict it and by wrong. By the way, I achieved a personal first this year by managing to see all five nominees in this category... They are not a cheerful bunch.
