Okay, time to go on record. I've been madly tweaking the sidebar over the last week and a bit, and I think I'm finally settled on who I think we'll here called tomorrow morning.
My full predictions (including alternates, wish-list nominees, and some dodgy explanations of my logic) after the cut.
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
(alternate: Philomena)
(nominee I'd like to see but am not predicting: Before Midnight)
The big question here is how many nominees we'll actually have. The last two years have yielded nine, but in a year like this when there are so many great movies separating the vote, its possible we could have only seven or eight; quite the paradox that perfectly illustrates the flaws in this current voting system. I think Banks and Her are the most likely to fall out if that's the case.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, Her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
(alternate: Alexander Payne, Nebraska)
(like to see: Sarah Pauley, Stories We Tell)
My prediction for Jonze is not at all confident. Even Scorsese has an angle.
Best Actor
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
(alternate: Leonardo DiCaprip, The Wolf of Wall Street)
(like to see: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis)
A lot of folks are banking on the fact that Leo really caught his stride at the right time, and Sunday's Globe win seems to have emboldened predictions for him. I see the logic, but I wonder if it was too little too late. The silently dramatic turn from a Hollywood legend? Or a wacky dark comedy turn from an actor that they haven't always embraced?
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
(alternate: Amy Adams, American Hustle)
(like to see: Brie Larson, Short Term 12)
I see no need to change the five everybody's seemed to have had since... September? Jeez.
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
(alternate: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street)
(like to see: Bradley Cooper, The Place Beyond the Pines)
Watch James Gandolfini sneak in.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Whinfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
(alternate: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine)
(like to see: Sarah Paulsen, 12 Years a Slave)
These five seem pretty safe. But ya never know...
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
(alternate: August: Osage County)
(like to see: Short Term 12)
I wonder who August bumps out, if at all? All of these predicted nominees are better liked films.
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
(alternate: Dallas Buyers Club)
(like to see: Frances Ha)
Super competitive year. Lots of excellent scripts are gonna get left on the sidelines. :(
Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen
Monsters University
The Win Rises
(alternate: Ernest & Celestine)
(like to see: Ernest & Celestine)
Seems uncrackable for the charming French kid-flick. But will they even go for five? Or in an unprecednted show of independent thinking, might they leave off a couple of undeserving titles?
Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Notebook
Omar
(alternate: Two Lives)
Never can tell what curveballs this committee will throw.
Best Documentary
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
The Square
Stories We Tell
(alternate: Tim's Vermeer)
I can't help but feel one of the two critical darlings (Killing and Stories) is gonna get shafted. But which one?
Best Cinematography
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
(alternate: Captain Phillips)
(like to see: The Grandmaster)
Best Editing
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Wolf of Wall Street
(alternate: Rush)
(like to see: All Is Lost)
Best Production Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
(alternate: Saving Mr. Banks)
(like to see: Elysium)
Best Costume Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Saving Mr. Banks
(alternate: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
(like to see: Inside Llewyn Davis)
Best Original Score
12 Years a Slave
The Book Thief
Gravity
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
(alternate: Captain Phillips)
(like to see: Her)
Best Original Song
"Let It Go", Frozen
"Young and Beautiful", The Great Gatsby
"The Moon Song", Her
"You and I Ain't Nothin' No More", Lee Daniels' The Butler
"Ordinary Love", Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
(alternate: "Atlas", The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
(like to see: "Over the Love", The Great Gatsby)
Best Sound Mixing
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
(alternate: All Is Lost)
(like to see: All Is Lost)
Best Sound Editing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush
(alternate: Iron Man 3)
(like to see: The Conjuring)
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Oblivion
Pacific Rim
(alternate: World War Z)
(like to see: Elysium)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
Jackass presents Bad Grandpa
(alternate: The Lone Ranger)
(like to see: Dallas Buyers Club)
