My early predictions continue with Best
Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and
Adapted Screenplay. Next week I'll start looking at some of the
visual craft categories.
Best Supporting Actor
Always hard to get a read on the
supporting categories because a lot of contenders stem from large
ensembles out of which it's hard to detect the standout without
seeing the film. The Monuments Men, for instance, boasts a
starry cast, but who (if any) will get the most attention. I'm taking
a chance on John Goodman (also starring in Inside Llewyn Davis this year) given his career trajectory of late;
featured in the last two Best Picture winners, among several other
awards films... how long can it be before his first career
nomination? And for which film will it be?
You could make a similar case for
Michael Fassbender, who probably came close to his first nomination
for Steve McQueen's Shame. He's teaming again with McQueen for
Twelve Years a Salve. Perhaps an American period drama is more
to the Academy's liking?
Other actors out there have roles with potential for scene stealing, but it's still impossible to tell. For now, I'm guessing:
Josh Brolin, Labor
Day
Michael Fassbender, Twelve
Years a Slave
John Goodman, Inside
Llewyn Davis / The
Monuments Men
Joaquin Phoenix, Lowlife
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Also consider: Benedict
Cumberbatch, August: Osage County; Matt Damon, The
Monuments Men; Jean Dujardin, The Monuments Men/The
Wolf of Wall Street;
Colin Farrell, Saving Mr. Banks
Best Supporting Actress
August: Osage County's large ensemble
seems likely to yield a nominee or two in this race, but who? Julia
Roberts is certainly the most A-list of the supporting ladies (Meryl
Streep will probably be campaigned as lead), but I'm going with the
Tony-winning role that will be interpretted on screen by Margo
Martindale.
Sally Hawkins might become the next in
a long line of Woody Allen supporting actresses to reap Oscar glory
for Blue Jasmine, while perennial contenders like Amy Adams and Cate
Blanchett need always be considered:
Amy Adams, Untitled
ABSCAM project / Her
Cate Blanchett, The
Monuments Men
Sally Hawkins, Blue
Jasmine
Catherine Keener, Captain
Phillips
Margo Martindale, August:
Osage County
Also consider: Cameron Diaz, The
Counselor; Naomi Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom;
Juliette Lewis, August: Osage County; Carey Mulligan, Inside
Llewyn Davis; Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Best Original Screenplay
Not much to do here but pick and choose
original screenplays from my predicted Best Picture lineup, tossing
in Sundance success Fruitvale for good measure:
E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron, Gravity
Bill Ray, Captain
Phillips
Cormac McCarthy, The
Counselor
Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale
Also consider: Blue Jasmine,
Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Untitled ABSCAM project, The Way, Way Back
Best Adapted Screenplay
The third in Richard Linklater's
Jesse-and-Celine trilogy was very warmly received at Sundance. The
previous entry (2004's Before Sunset) earned a nomination
here, and by all accounts this one is good enough to do the same.
Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Julie
Delpy, Before Midnight
Jason Reitman, Labor Day
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, The
Monuments Men
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall
Street
Also
consider:
The Butler,
The Fifth
Estate,
Mandela: Long
Walk to Freedom,
Serena,
Twelve Years a Slave
