After
the SAG Awards, the Best Actress race appears to have a frontrunner,
but there's more nuance to it than that. A couple of the nominees
weren't even in competition for the SAG or the Golden Globes, and
even though I find myself predicting the obvious choice, it's a
category that feels ripe for an upset.
At the start of the season, it looked like Jessica Chastain, who burst on the scene last year in over half a dozen films, would make good on her second consecutive Oscar nomination for her committed performance in Zero Dark Thirty. She's split critics prizes with the frontrunner down the middle, and the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama is a high profile feather in her cap, but the lack of backstory or emotional hook for her character makes her a bit of a tough sell to Academy voters. It hasn't helped that opinions on the film itself have cooled after squawking over the whole “torture thing” got out of hand.
The
actress ahead of the pack, Jennifer Lawrence, wrested early
frontrunner status away from Chastain after winning the SAG Award.
Going on the assumption that Silver Linings Playbook, with its four
acting nominations, has to win something, Lawrence should be the
natural choice. The Academy loves to crown a hot, young “it”
girl, and Lawrence is approaching the peak of her artistic and
commercial credibility (her lead turn in mammoth moneymaker The
Hunger Games can only help her
here). But her barbed, acidic, oddly comic performance in the film
isn't typical Oscar fodder, and many members may figure that they'll
have plenty of opportunities to reward down the road.
If
you're looking for an upset, it may well come from the oldest acting Best Actress
nominee in Oscar history, Emmanuelle Riva, who turns 86 on Oscar
night! What a birthday present that would be! Her brilliant portrait
of the ravages of age laid bare in Amour
is good enough to win on merit alone, but she may also get some help
from older voters who spy this rare chance to recognize a living
legend. How many of them member Hiroshima, Mon Amour
from the 60s? I'm not bold enough to predict it, but such an upset
would not surprise me. It would definitely delight me! Her BAFTA win has a number of pundits lining up behind her now.
Book-ending
Riva as the oldest acting nominee ever is the youngest acting Best Actress nominee
ever, little Quvenzhane Wallis, whose fierce and mesmerizing
performance gave such beautiful voice to the year's best film. She
deserves to be taken more seriously than she's likely to be. Child
performers are rarely in a position to win, and it's only ever
happened in the Supporting categories. Many may credit her inspired
turn more to director Benh Zeitlin for “coaxing” it out of her.
Rubbish, says I! But I still have a hard time seeing her winning.
Finally,
Naomi Watts represents the sole nomination for The
Impossible, and is the only
nominee whose movie isn't up for Best Picture. That pretty much tells
you her chances of winning are slim, but on top of that we need to
consider that much of her performance is spent with her floating in
and of consciousness on a hospital bed. Her only hope is that some
might consider due for a win, but I suspect any voter who thinks is
those terms will throw their support behind the 86 year old.
Will
win: Jennifer Lawrence,
Silver Linings Playbook
Runner-up:
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Should
win: Emmanuelle Riva,
Amour
Should
have been nominated:
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
