Without the benefit of the DGA's nominees to guide them, the Academy's directors branch voted with their hearts, and yielded a pair of refreshingly unexpected Best Director nominees upon which future generations are destined to look back and smile with approval. But it yielded one unfortunate omission which has now thrown the season into flux. Funny how one little "snub" can so entirely muddy the waters of Oscar prognostication.
Funny also how it can so fervently stoke the fires of debate. Across the Internet we're seeing writers and pundits making heated arguments (some coloured by more than just a little personal bias) as to why Argo will, or why Argo won't, win Best Picture in just under a month's time.
So, why Argo?
One thing is for sure: the film industry likes Argo. Earning nominations from every guild except the CAS and ASC made that clear enough, but its victories this weekend with the PGA and SAG prove that those weren't just token citations. People like this movie enough to vote for it.
The PGA and SAG wins are especially important because each group reflects something about the Academy. SAG is a large body of actors; people who make up nearly a third of the Academy's membership. The PGA uses a preferential ballot like the Academy, which benefits unobjectionable movies that everybody can get behind. Argo fits the bill. Everyone seems to like it to some extent, which lands it a lot of #2 or #3 votes, which are essential to winning the whole enchilada. Not to suggest a complete overlap between the guilds and the Academy (which we all know is far from the truth), but these similarities are significant enough.
So, why not Argo?
In the 85 year history of the Academy Awards, only three films have won Best Picture without a Best Director nod: Wings, Grand Hotel, and Driving Miss Daisy (the former two hardly count as precedent since they happened in the early years with less than five Best Director nominees).
A more recent precedent which the Argo-averse are quick to bring up is Apollo 13's doomed mission in the awards season of 1996. It claimed top prizes from the PGA, DGA, and SAG, but without a Best Director nod for actor-turned-director Ron Howard, it fell to Braveheart on Oscar night.
This is to say nothing of the fact that with three weeks until polls close, there's more than enough time for backlash and smear campaigns. Online reactions already started to get nasty after Argo's one-two PGA-SAG punch this weekend. I'm betting it's not long until certain outlets start running stories on the historical inaccuracies of Chris Terrio's screenplay. You can be sure that things will get ugly, and in a drawn out season such as this, all that ugliness might have its intended effect. Beware early frontrunner status
While the Best Director miss surely hurts, context is important. In nearly every year before this one, there was enough time between guild and Oscar nominations for group-think to drive the narrative of the season. With the directors branch voting in a vacuum this year, their slate of contenders could be considered somewhat moot. In fact, many argue that the snub has cast Argo as an underdog, thus spurring it on to these early victories.
And then there's the question of whether or not it can win any other categories. Even its two most attainable categories -- Film Editing and Adapted Screenplay -- are not sure things. It's entirely possible that Argo could win Best Picture and nothing else. That would be a first, but I think it's gotta win at least one of those two other categories (and I think it has a real shot at Score as well).
However it goes down, it'll be an exciting thing to watch unfold over the rest of the season and right up to Oscar night. I'm loving every minute of it.
