Sunday, January 27, 2013

SAG solidifies Argo as Best Picture frontrunner

I was going to liveblog tonight's SAG awards, but the local TV station that was supposed to carry it checked out for the first 40 minutes. By the time they corrected their error, I was too embittered to bother blogging, forced to watch an hour of TV categories before getting back around to the movie ones.
Things shook down mostly according to plan. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anne Hathaway, and Jennifer Lawrence strengthened their holds on Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress respectively. Best Supporting Actor was predictably unpredictable, but it ended up going to Tommy Lee Jones, as likely an Oscar bet as any.

The only semi-surprise came in the big final category of Best Ensemble. While I (and many others) had figured on Silver Linings Playbook making its precursor splash here, it was Argo who took the night's most important award. Ben Affleck's crowd-pleasing thriller has had a great rejuvenation following the Best Director snub which had caused most pundits to write it off as an also-ran. Not only is it back in the thick of the Best Picture race, but after PGA and SAG victories this weekend, it's the new frontrunner.

Lincoln is still a force to be reckoned with. It did lead all SAG victors with two wins, and we can assume Sally Field was probably second to Anne Hathaway (albeit a distant second). But perhaps Argo was the film to beat all along, but the date change made it impossible for the directors branch to vote as instructed by the season. The so-called snub might have been blown way out of proportion. Next weekend's DGA awards may be the dagger if it goes Affleck's way. Again, I wonder if the agonizing wait until ballots are due might trigger a backlash.

I went 4/6 in my predictions, only missing Ensemble and Supporting Actor. Hey, better than last year.

Best Ensemble: Argo
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Stunt Ensemble: Skyfall