As usual, the Academy's makeup branch is one that defies prediction, snubbing high-profile work every year when it comes to their contestant-whittling bakeoff, and often including at least one fringe contender in their final three. The big shaftee this year in the bakeoff stage is Cloud Atlas, whose plethora of genre-spanning, gender-crossing, and race-warping transformations just wasn't enough to overcome the hit-and-miss nature of the actual makeup. And perhaps with good reason. Quantity shouldn't substitute for quality, and while the film's makeup team deserves a hearty pat on the back for being the hardest working members of the crew, a lot of the makeup was just plain bad.
Another snubbed movie which I thought might have a shot at being this year's fringe contender was Leos Carax's Holy Motors, whose shape-shifting star Denis Lavant dons many guises which are not only well executed, but spotlighted in the film itself as Lavant applies and removes the makeup himself. I guess it was too fringe for the makeup branch to even see it, which is probably why it didn't get a mention.
Two films that did make the cut and are both likely (and deserving) nominees are The Hobbit and Lincoln. As for that third slot, I'm a bit at a loss. General Best Picture momentum could carry Les Miz into the final three, but that didn't happen for either The Artist or Hugo last year. Rick Baker's name recognition and the respect that comes with it may bode well for Men in Black III. The jowly prosthetics used in Hitchock may be enough to land it that third nomination, although I personally don't think they made Anthony Hopkins look at all like the man he was imitating. Could the subtle work that made Joseph Gordon-Levitt resemble a younger Bruce Willis in Looper impress the branch? I'm not counting on it, but it sure would be sweet to see that film nominated somewhere. And what about Snow White and the Huntsman? That's been so far off the radar that maybe it's the real fringe contender.
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Looper
Men in Black III
Les Miserables
Snow White and the Huntsman
