It's with little dismay that I declare Albert Nobbs has no chance of winning. That's not to insult Matt Mungle's work on the film, which is finely tuned and helps mask the more feminine features on Glenn Close and Janet McTeer, but the makeup is hardly transformative. Subtlety will get you nothing from the Academy as a whole. I'm somewhat surprised that it wasn't The Artist absorbing the "subtlety slot" in this category.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 marks the first time the franchise has been nominated for its makeup after making the finalist list three previous times. I've been wondering since the bake-off if the Academy might make a collective vote of sentiment/congratulations for the series as a whole. Its competition is too strong in Art Direction and Visual Effects, and there's no denying that the makeup creations are noticeable enough for voters. Win or lose, the nomination has been a long time coming for Nick Dudman. Well done, sir!
It's hard not to be impressed with The Iron Lady's convincing aging effects, even if it's way too easy to not be impressed with the film. Normally, I'd think the film's low quality might be enough to give Potter the edge, but the nomination for Meryl Streep means people have seen or will be seeing the film. That added exposure could be just what it needs to pull out the win, as was the case with La Vie en Rose courtesy of Marion Cotillard's Oscar-winning performance. But I remain uncertain. I may be changing this prediction right up until the show.
Will win: The Iron Lady
Runner-up: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Should win: The Iron Lady
Should've been nominated: Green Lantern
