One of Michel Hazanavicius' three nominations for The Artist comes in this category (alongside co-editor Anne-Sophie Bion). Don't be fooled into thinking that voters will want to spread the wealth, given his likely triumph in Best Director; his name doesn't even appear on the ballot for this category, and most voters probably don't even know he's one of the editors. Given how often this category goes to the Best Picture winner, and with the virtually requisite ACE Eddie in hand, The Artist is a safe bet, but not a foolproof one. After all, the Academy as a whole tend to go for the nominee with the "most" editing as opposed to the "best", and The Artist's editing, while precisely modulated to serve the pace of the story, isn't exactly flashy.
After a focused campaign on behalf of the film's craft elements, The Descendants managed to snatch an ACE nomination, followed by one from the Academy, for editor Kevin Tent (a prediction I made back in April, but not on the eve of Oscar nominations! Figures). While I for one thought some of the awkward beats did the film a disservice, I can't say I'm surprised by the nomination. It is a prime Best Picture contender. I would be very surprised, however, to see it win, despite its victory with the ACE.
Despite being the only nominee not also up for Best Picture, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo's wild splicing could bring Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall their second Oscars in as many years (they won last year for more finely tuned work on The Social Network). It's not unheard of for non-Best-Picture-nominees to win here; Recent examples include The Bourne Ultimatum, Black Hawk Down, and The Matrix, who beat highly touted Best Picture frontrunners by virtue of their much showier cutting.
As in most categories, Hugo should not be underestimated. While it may not come close to Thelma Schoonmaker's best work, the pacing within individual set pieces is slick. If only the whole film had been so evenly smoothed out, we might have a clear frontrunner for this award. Even without the ACE Eddie for Drama under its belt, it actually might be. But when in doubt, it's never unwise to go with the eventual Best Picture winner, which would make Hugo the close runner-up.
By far the best of the five is Christopher Tellefsen's whip-smart, slightly idiosyncratic editing on Moneyball. He captures the very best of each performance and serves Bennett Miller's observational direction without letting any scene become boring. It's a bold and tricky task to work in so many intentionally awkward moments, but under the guidance of his fantastic sense of timing, the film thrives. Unfortunately, I fear that the work is too subtle to win over the Academy.
Will win: The Artist
Runner-up: Hugo
Should win: Moneyball
Should've been nominated: Drive
