My guesses in all 21 feature film categories after the cut, plus commentaries and rationales.
Best Picture
-The Artist
-The Descendants
-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-The Help
-Hugo
-Midnight in Paris
-Moneyball
-War Horse
My suspicion is that there will only be seven nominees, with either War Horse or Moneyball or Dragon Tattoo missing out, but I can't decide which one. I'll cheat by predicting eight instead of naming an alternate.
Best Director
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michael Hazanavicius - The Artist
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
alt. Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Me thinks that Malick and Refn might negate the art house vote betwixt themselves, allowing all five DGA nominees to slide through. I'd be happy to be wrong.
Best Actor
George Clooney - The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
alt. Michael Shannon - Take Shelter
Despite earning Critics Choice, Globe, and SAG nods, Leo doesn't feel safe. He's ripe for a surprise attack from Shannon, or maybe Oldman or even Damien Bichir.
Best Actress
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis - The Help
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn
alt. Elizabeth Olsen - Martha Marcy May Marlene
Davis, Streep, Swinton, and Williams have appeared with great consistency in the precursor circuit. I feel fairly confident with this lineup, though I'd love to see Charlize Theron surprise.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks - Drive
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
alt. Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
This lineup also appears fairly set-in-stone due to the lack of variety this season. I have very little confidence that my alternate (SAG nominee Armie Hammer) can squeak in.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Shailene Woodley - The Descendents
alt. Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
Something doesn't feel right about McCarthy. She was hilarious, yes, but it's just not an awards-worthy performance. I could easily see her replaced by McTeer or maybe Vanessa Redgrave.
Best Adapted Screenplay
-The Descendants
-The Help
-Hugo
-The Ides of March
-Moneyball
alt. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
I like to allow myself one prediction per year that isn't going to happen, but would totally make my day. This year I'm holding out improbable hope that the writers will stick up for George Clooney's tragically underrated The Ides of March.
Best Original Screenplay
-50/50
-The Artist
-Midnight in Paris
-Win Win
-Young Adult
alt. Bridesmaids
Hard to gauge since most of the Best Picture contenders are adaptations.
Best Film Editing
-The Artist
-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-Hugo
-Moneyball
-War Horse
alt. The Descendants
Apparently Fox Searchlight is making a real push for The Descendants in the craft categories. They realize that it can't win Best Picture without at least an Editing nod. Its ACE nomination gives it a fighting chance. Oh, how I'd love to see Drive shock us here!
Best Cinematography
-The Artist
-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-Hugo
-The Tree of Life
-War Horse
alt. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse's ASC snub hurts, but I'm betting some Best Picture heat will help it surmount guild nominee Tinker Tailor.
Best Art Direction
-The Artist
-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
-Hugo
-Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
-War Horse
alt. Anonymous
Even though Maria Djurkovic has been unanimously praised for Tinker Tailor's production design, I worry that she's being set up for a painful snub, perhaps at the hands of showier period work. Although, maybe it's the ADG-snubbed War Horse that should be more worried.
Best Costume Design
-The Artist
-The Help
-Hugo
-Jane Eyre
-My Week with Marilyn
alt. W.E.
The BFCA would sure be happy with this; it matches their anticipatory slate of Costume Design nominees identically.
Best Original Score
-The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
-The Artist
-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-Hugo
-War Horse
alt. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
I get the feeling something completely out of left field is going to replace Tintin.
Best Original Song
“Lay Your Head Down” - Albert Nobbs
“Life's a Happy Song” - The Muppets
“The Living Proof” - The Help
“Pictures in My Head” - The Muppets
“Star Spangled Man” - Captain America
alt. "Hello Hello" - Gnomeo and Juliet
To be honest, I don't actually see two songs from The Muppets making it in (great though they may be). I think the music branch would sooner nominate four or fewer songs.
Best Sound Mixing
-Hugo
-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
-Super 8
-Transformers: Dark of the Moon
-War Horse
alt. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
I don't instinctively see Pirates getting nominated here, but it's only ever happened a couple of times that less than three CAS nominees go on to Oscar nominations, and since I just don't see Hanna or Moneyball making it in, Pirates is the only alternative to give us a 3/5 match up.
Best Sound Editing
-The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
-Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
-Super 8
-Transformers: Dark of the Moon
-War Horse
alt. Hugo
Is it too late for Potter to find some long overdue recognition in this field?
Best Visual Effects
-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
-Hugo
-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
-Rise of the Planet of the Apes
-The Tree of Life
alt. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Just a hunch, but given the snub of Revenge of the Fallen two years ago, and given that all previous Pirates films have scored here, it just feels right to me. Watch it end up going to MI4. That would actually be a pleasant surprise.
Best Makeup
-The Artist
-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
-The Iron Lady
alt. Hugo
You never can tell with that Makeup branch. Any combo of the seven finalists would not surprise me.
Best Animated Feature
-Arthur Christmas
-Cars 2
-Kung Fu Panda 2
-Puss in Boots
-Rango
alt. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
I'm betting the mo-cap bias will bar Tintin's path to what should have been a walking-away victory.
Best Documentary
-Bill Cunningham New York
-Buck
-Hell and Back Again
-Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
-Project Nim
alt. We Were Here
Just guess work really. Even the supposed locks are never safe in this category.
Best Foreign Language Film
-Footnote
-In Darkness
-Monsieur Lazhar
-Pina
-A Separation
alt. SuperClasico
As with Best Documentary, there are no sure things here.
