One Category at a Time: Best Actor

Johnny Depp, one of America's most elite actors (though it may be easy to forget, given his resume of late), stars in an adaptation of Hunter S. Thompson's The Rum Diary, written and directed by Barry Robison. I'm sure everyone is eager to see Depp take on a role that doesn't involve Jack Sparrow or Tim Burton. I know I am.

Ryan Gosling probably missed a nomination this past year by the skin of teeth, having given one of 2010's best performances in Blue Valentine. If the Academy wants to make it up to him (not saying they necessarily do), they may pay closer attention to his work in George Clooney's The Ides of March, in which he plays a disillusioned political staffer.

As for George Clooney himself, after laying low in 2010, he's on course to have a big year starring in Alexander Payne's The Descendants and his own directorial project The Ides of March. He faces internal competition from the latter's Ryan Gosling, but he is the main attraction in the former, which will allow him to tap into that well of understated emotion that he does so well.

David Cronenberg's A Dangerous Method has two prime contenders in Viggo Mortensen and Michael Fassbender, playing Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung respectively. Will vote splitting ruin both their chances? Will one be pushed to Supporting? Can they both sneak in? These questions depend on a number of factor's, including how well the film is received, but for the time being, it's safe to assume that biographical roles are in for their fair share of awards attention.

And finally, is Hollywood ready to forgive Mel Gibson? He's got a plum role in Jodie Foster's The Beaver, as an unbalanced man who can only communicate with others through a hand puppet. Oscar loves a good comeback, although it may still be too soon after Gisbon's tabloid antics for them to welcome him back to the flock with a nomination. We shall see.

Predicted five:
George Clooney in The Descendants or The Ides of March
Johnny Depp in The Rum Diary
Mel Gibson in The Beaver
Ryan Gosling in The Ides of March
Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method

Also consider: Antonio Banderas The Skin That I Inhabit, Damien Bichir A Better Life, Matt Damon We Bought a Zoo, Michael Fassbender A Dangerous Method, Ralph Fiennes Coriolanus, James McAvoy The Conspirator, Brad Pitt Moneyball, Michael Shannon Take Shelter.