A year ago, when the Best Picture ten and that damned preferential ballot were first upon us, I questioned whether or not the conventional rules of what "can" win Best Picture would still apply. I analyzed the key nominations that the ten nominees either possessed or lacked in order to narrow them down to three frontrunners, and those three (assumed) frontrunners went on to win six of the eight major categories between them, so I'd say those conventional rules are still a fairly accurate barometer of which films are in the best position.Let's try it again, shall we? To win Best Picture, a film needs nominations for Directing, Writing, and especially Editing. Let's see which of this year's crop have all three necessary nominations:
The Fighter: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The King's Speech: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Social Network: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
And lo, there you have your three frontrunners: The King's Speech, The Social Network, and The Fighter.
The King's Speech is obviously the one out ahead. With twelve nominations total (including three acting nods), it's poised to rule the night, likely winning between five and eight categories on its way to Best Picture. It's simply the movie that pleases across the board. Everyone will have it near, if not at the very top of their ballot.The Fighter, with three acting bids of its own, might be considered the most formidable challenger, but The Social Network's critical respect is nothing to sneeze at, and big wins from ACE and BAFTA have given some people enough confidence to predict either a Picture/Director split or an outright upset. It might be a close race for 2nd place between those two. Sadly, we'll never know who wins.
True Grit might be in better position if it weren't for that lack of an Editing nod, but it's probably your fourth place finisher. Ten nominations is an impressive showing of support. It's troubling to imagine that it might be shut out completely. Our hopes are dangling on Roger Deakins' in Best Cinematography (gulp).You can order the remaining six nominees however you like, but none of them stand much a shot:
-True, Black Swan and 127 Hours each have two of those three necessary nods, but they both deal with subject matter that many a conservative Academy member is simply not going to get behind. They can forget those valuable 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place votes.
-Winter's Bone and The Kids Are All Right have a Writing and two Acting nominations a piece, but nothing else. They're likely too small in scope to register with enough voters in order to pull off an upset.
-Toy Story 3 has that blasted animation bias to contend with, although sentimentality could go a long way in keeping it alive through the first few elimination rounds.
-Inception was probably never that well liked with this group, as the egregious snubs for Director and Editing seem to suggest. Genre bias is a bitch.
Will win (ranks):
#1 The King's Speech
#2 The Social Network
#3 The Fighter
#4 True Grit
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 Black Swan
#7 The Kids Are All Right
#8 Inception
#9 Winter's Bone
#10 127 Hours
Should win (ranks):
#1 The Social Network
#2 Black Swan
#3 Inception
#4 The Kids Are All Right
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 True Grit
#7 The King's Speech
#8 127 Hours
#9 The Fighter
#10 Winter's Bone
Should have been nominated (top five):
#1 Exit Through the Gift Shop
#2 The Illusionist
#3 Another Year
#4 Fish Tank
#5 Rabbit Hole
